The Rudy Spring?
By Rudy Beats McCain Posted in User Blogs — Comments (7) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
If you believe, as I do, that John McCain is a grossly overvalued political quantity at the moment, you tend to be on the lookout for signs that the bull run of the Straight Talk Express is nearing exhaustion.
The last two weeks have provided valuable clues that the worm may be beginning to turn when it comes to conventional wisdom about the '08 primary. And though the chief beneficiary is Rudy Giuliani -- I posit that we may be at the cusp of a "Rudy Spring" -- the downfall of McCain makes it that much more likely for Allen or Romney to pull an upset, facing a pro-choicer rather than an obfuscating pro-lifer as the nationwide frontrunner.#1: McCain loses GOP ballot 29-22. The Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll on the '08 nomination didn't tell us anything we already didn't know -- Giuliani has held a narrow advantage in the GOP ballot for a year -- but a lead on the high-end of the scale (7% vs. 4%) makes it that much harder for the Charlie Cook-types to sniff that the two are "tied" for the nomination. The Giuliani lead also comes after a wave of McCain publicity following his stunt at the SRLC, and an increasing tendency to talk down of Giuliani's chances of even running.
#2. Diageo-Hotline Reveals Giuliani the Choice of Pro-Bush Republicans. This discovery alone would be enough to seal the case for a Rudy Spring -- so this poll the cake and everything else in this post the icing for Team Giuliani. All along, the Chuck Todd Thesis of this race is that Republicans who vote in primaries would take McCain over Giuliani, but his own poll utterly lays waste to this notion. True, the topline McCain-Giuliani numbers show a dead heat, but the internals tell a different story. McCain leads Giuliani 51%-34% among Republicans who disapprove of Bush, while Giuliani leads by 14% among Republicans who "strongly approve" of the President. Now, all alone, this isn't enough to undo McCain, supposing that there are enough anti-Bush Republicans and that Rudy enjoys only mild support among pro-Bush Republicans.
But the practical reality is that it is very difficult for McCain to expand his support among conservatives if his core base consists of tepid Republicans (and troublemaking Democrats) -- remember, McCain has to think about servicing his base before making a move to the right. Rudy hits the sweet spot of crossover appeal -- he's a moderate who plays well with conservatives, not a nominal pro-lifer who has found a home on the Left.
Looking historically, the popularity of two-term incumbents tends to grow after their final midterm election. If this pattern holds with Bush (troop drawdowns in Iraq, media setting their sights on '08 not defeating W.), then it becomes even more untenable to be seen as the un-Bush in the GOP. This is why McCain is frantically trying to brand himself as a Bush loyalist, at the risk of losing electability points by sacrificing some of his left-wing support.
Bottom line: Giuliani doesn't sacrifice the Bush brand, and McCain does. Advantage: Giuliani.
#3. Pro-choice, pro-gay rights Judy Baar Topinka wins IL-GOV primary. Illinois is hardly a red state, but Baar Topinka's primary win is a reminder that pro-choice Republicans can and do win primaries -- and in a Midwestern state where Evangelicals are somewhat of a factor. And Baar Topinka won numerous counties outside Chicagoland, most notably quite a few that are geographically close to Iowa.
#4. Favorability ratings. A Time poll shows both Giuliani and McCain with strong favorability, but Rudy's ratings are higher, most likely due to his higher favorables among Republicans (those inconvenient analytical oddities who actually vote in primaries!). Nationally, Rudy holds down a 68%-27% fav/unfav ratio. That's 61%-27% for McCain. (From forwarded Hotline writeup, link not available.) But, Diageo-Hotline finds that McCain gets a 62% favorable rating among Republicans, compared to 76% for Dick Cheney. McCain's rock-bottom favorability among Republicans is his Achilles Heel. Giuliani gets you everything McCain will realistically get you among moderates and independents, without sacrificing GOP enthusiasm.
#5. The trust factor. This important piece by ex-Giuliani aide Josh Greenman reaches a conventional conclusion (social issues will sink Rudy -- and folks, I don't necessarily disagree), but it highlights the One Thing You Need to Know about Giuliani vs. McCain: loyalty matters for GOP voters, and Giuliani wins the "team player" mantle hands down.
This ought to be enough for Rudy to sideline McCain's bid. The question is if it will be enough for the final showdown with Romney/Allen.
I will support either McCain or Guiliani, with me supporting Rudy over McCain if both are running for the nomination. Call me odd, but my first criteria for a Presidential candidate is their past effectiveness in running government and the scope of the leadership. There is no doubt in my mind that Rudy is the best leader for our country. In addition, he is someone who believes in federalism, which is the answer to any social issue in my opinion, especially abortion and same-sex marriage, on the federal level.
my first criteria for a Presidential candidate is their past effectiveness in running government
McCain's never run anything but his staff, ragged. Other than maybe Hagel, he is about the most unqualified candidate in the field. He's just been around a long time.
I agree with you, that is why I am supporting Guiliani over McCain. However, if Rudy is not in the field, I have other reasons for supporting McCain over the others, such as his stance on some issues (however, not his stance on campaign finance). I am looking for someone who believes in federalism in this race and I think the order goes Rudy, then McCain, however, someone else could convince me of their loyalty to the lost value of state's rights.
All of the early, national polls are worthless.
#1 - They are reflections of Name ID.
#2 - The nation doesn't pick the President. A handful of early primary states do.
This is not to say that Giuliani or McCain would not be the frontrunner, but national polls this early are meaningless.
Also, a moderate statewide elected official winning a statewide primary in a Democratic state where she was the favorite is a harbinger of what exactly?
McCain has only one principle. John McCain is the Center of the Universe. McCain is totally unqualified to be POTUS. He is the most dangerous man in America.
- He has no central principles other than the one noted above.
- He is generally opposed to the First Amendment.
- He is opposed to tax cuts of all stripes.
- He talks tough on Iraq, but has no discernable position on the GWOT.
- He is opposed to border security.
- He comes off as "tough on spending" because of his position on earmarks but has no position on reducing spending on "entitlements".
- He would likely nominate SCOTUS justices in the mold of SD O'Connor, not Roberts or Alito.
- Need I say "Gang of 14". McCain is more concerned with Senate comity than he is with the quality of judges and justices.
- He's changed his "pro-life" position a couple of times.
- He doesn't like Roe but doesn't think it should be overturned.
- He does not have the temperament to be POTUS. When faced with even mild criticism, his head explodes.
- Need I discuss his choice of "friends", namely John Kerry and Ted Kennedy.
- His comments supporting Kerry and defaming the SwiftVets.
- His total lack of executive experience. His only experience is being 1 of 100 where his opinion doesn't have to matter for anything.
- Keating 5 is too old and forgotten to care about. So why is he still compensating?
- Did I mention CFR, G14 and his votes against EVERY tax cut?
I'd rather see Jimmy Carter serve a second term than see John McCain serve his first.
The poll that shows Rudy leading McCain 29% to 22% proves...what? If you've got 49% for other candidates or undecided, a lot can change between now and the first primary in 2008.
A lot of questions need to be answered about Rudy Giuliani. Sure, lots of people (including me) admire what he did on and shortly after 9/11. But where does he stand on social issues (abortion, marriage, school choice, etc.) important to Christian voters? Whom would he appoint to SCOTUS? How well would he work with Congress? What would he do if faced with a threat from Iran? Would he raise or lower taxes?
What are Rudy Giuliani's convictions, deep in his heart? Is he a real conservative, who feigned liberal positions to win City Hall in New York, or is he really a liberal RINO who is tough on crime?
Giuliani was in the perfect position to challenge Hillary for the Senate in 2000, but backed down when he had prostate problems. Could he be sidelined again by health problems when he's eight years older?
Rudy still has another 2 years to tell us, but I'm not ready to jump on his bandwagon yet...
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Is there any evidence that Rudy is running in 2008? Has he been locking up Republican campaign personnel like the other candidates?
How pro-choice is Rudy? Does he advocate for abortion, or just tolerate it because New Yorkers clearly want it?
Reputation and superb speaking skills will get you a good spot in the presidential race, but it's not enough to win the nomination. That'll depend on his stance on issues like immigration, whether people believe he's logical fiscal conservative, let's people decide the social issues, and is a strong supporter of textualist judges like Bush. I have little doubt he'd win a general election unless there is some huge blockbuster corruption/scandal. He's probably the "surest" Republican bet for a win in the general election, followed by McCain (though I think his age and other factors will only let him barely win against a Dem) and Romney.